Many a times when
people ask me about how the markets would do, how a stock would perform,
whether a sector will turn around, how the rupee will fare,what’s your
take on the economy etc , I resort to a frank and an honest answer “Ask
Bejan Daruwalla”. Forecasting the future really is the job of an
astrologer. However in the investing world I have seen that analysts
keep on forecasting in spite of our inability to predict the future.
However still the forecasting industry is a highly paid industry and
people go on forecasting and go on going wrong 90% of the time.
Most of the investing industry is
obsessed with trying to guess the future. This is the result of how
investors are taught to think about investing. Business schools teach us
the discounted cash flow model: we are taught to forecast cash flows
for a company 10 to 20 years in to the future and then discount them
back to the present. I hope this was as easy as it sounds. It cannot be
done as this is based on certain assumptions and these are subject to
change over time. Moreover different people have different assumptions.
People do it out of a habit or it has become a custom to do so to sound
intelligent and smart. Certain behavioural traits also play an important
role. In bullish times people are over optimistic and over confident
and so would the assumptions be, which will change if there is subdued
pessimism.
Normally the top down approach is
followed. Forecast the economy, forecast the interest rates, forecast
the sectors which will do well and within this environment forecast the
stocks that will do well in that sector. Assume that someone is pretty
good at this and is right on each forecast most of the time. If all the
forecasts need to be correct then there is just a minimal chance of
getting it right. After getting all these right the analyst still has a
number of other forecasts to be made on individual companies: sales,
different costs, power, raw material, wages, taxes and so on. Now how do
you expect one to go right? No wonder they never hit the bulls eye.
Lets see the track record of all the
forecasting by the analysts. The tech boom talked about the death of
bricks and mortar and the birth of the new economy. The tech companies
were forecasted to do very well. What happened? 2001 all the forecasts
went for a toss. During that time the FMCG companies were the discarded
lot and the analysts forecasted gloomy future for those stocks. Had you
been using common sense and bought these FMCG companies because they
were available at cheap valuations you would be immensely rich.
Similarly 2005 to 2007 analysts forecasted bright future for the Real
Estate, Infrastructure and Power Industry. None of those forecasts came
true. When 2008 global crisis came, again it proved all the forecasts
wrong. Surprisingly no one had forecasted the global crisis. Till last
year everyone had a pessimistic outlook on our economy and the business
environment and these forecasts have also gone wrong. Just recently
analysts were bearish on Hindustan Lever and it surprised them with an
11% growth. Adani stocks have been zooming, had anyone forecasted? The
forecasting record of the analyst’s have been dreadful and they don't
have a clue about the future earnings. If you are going to read these
broker reports, and hear the analysts on TV shows forecasting , please
do it for entertainment rather than for investing.
PRASHANT SHARMA
PGDM-IIsem
No comments:
Post a Comment