Don't expect market to perform well in October: UR Bhat, MD, Dalton Capital Advisors
In a chat with ET Now, UR Bhat, MD, Dalton Capital Advisors, shares his market outlook.
ET Now: What is in store for us in the month of October because September was all about high volatility and no return?
UR Bhat: Things are not looking very bright even in October. You have the US government also coming to a stop possibly by midnight today or even the debt ceiling discussions which should go well if not on October 17th, we have a serious problem there also. Political uncertainty in Europe should also be considered. In Italy there is a huge political instability; Greece, there again some dose of political instability.
FII flows decide the direction of the market and it does not look like as if October is going to be a great month for us. Even though September has seen some very good inflows despite all these uncertainties, in India we have a situation where after a long time, people are really convinced that interest rates are probably heading upwards.
We have problems of current account deficit which today we will have some inkling about how that would be for the September quarter which is likely to worse than what most people expected. So therefore, things are not really looking up.
Then we have an earnings season coming up which are probably likely to be best forgotten because there is hardly going to be any growth at all. The state of the banking system is quite pathetic. In fact I was just reading a report from a credit rating agency which said that if most of the public sector banks, considering the nonperforming assets plus the stressed assets, really have no capital. So therefore, there is a huge recapitalisation required for public sector banks.
ET Now: What is in store for us in the month of October because September was all about high volatility and no return?
UR Bhat: Things are not looking very bright even in October. You have the US government also coming to a stop possibly by midnight today or even the debt ceiling discussions which should go well if not on October 17th, we have a serious problem there also. Political uncertainty in Europe should also be considered. In Italy there is a huge political instability; Greece, there again some dose of political instability.
FII flows decide the direction of the market and it does not look like as if October is going to be a great month for us. Even though September has seen some very good inflows despite all these uncertainties, in India we have a situation where after a long time, people are really convinced that interest rates are probably heading upwards.
We have problems of current account deficit which today we will have some inkling about how that would be for the September quarter which is likely to worse than what most people expected. So therefore, things are not really looking up.
Then we have an earnings season coming up which are probably likely to be best forgotten because there is hardly going to be any growth at all. The state of the banking system is quite pathetic. In fact I was just reading a report from a credit rating agency which said that if most of the public sector banks, considering the nonperforming assets plus the stressed assets, really have no capital. So therefore, there is a huge recapitalisation required for public sector banks.
vijay kr yadav
pgdm, sem-1
sou- times of india
No comments:
Post a Comment