From the worst to the best performer: Rupee to touch 60 as Raghuram Rajan reverses sentiment

                          

  MUMBAI: The currency tide has turned in spectacular fashion. Asia's worst performer until last week, the rupee has become the world's best performer in the past five days as investor confidence has surged following a series of steps to boost inflows and the receding likelihood of a US strike on Syria.

The local currency had its best four-day rally in four decades after Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan moved to reverse sentiment on policymaking, introducing several measures soon after taking over last Wednesday. Liberal fund-raising rules for banks and exchange risk cover for NRI deposits are estimated to draw about $20 billion in the next few weeks.

The rupee's slump below 60 to the dollar was a "capitulation trade which clearly was overdone", according to Alok Agarwal, CFO at Reliance IndustriesBSE -0.29 %. "The rupee's reversal should take the same path — a move up to 63 against the dollar, with relief and confidence coming back and then a slower appreciation to 60 as the emerging markets steady themselves after the Fed's plans on tapering are known at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting."

The rupee gained 2.2 per cent from Friday's level to 63.84 to the dollar. It's the best performer in the past five days among the 189 currencies listed on the Bloomberg table. The rupee strengthened past 64 for the first time since August 26 to as high as 63.76, Bloomberg data shows. The currency touched an all-time low of 68.84 on August 28.  

nitesh kumsr singh

pgdm 1st